I decided to take a look at Instagram - the current app, the API and the website. Before long, I came across mentions of
.tVideoIndicator CSS classes on profile pages, and this image (Update: It’s been removed - here’s a cached copy) hosted on their CDN.
The sprites - a play/pause and volume/mute button, and their connection to videos in the markup seems to mean that Instagram video is a certainty. A mute button is the big giveaway on a photo-sharing app…
The Facebook event
I’d be doubtful that the event invitations sent out could be anything to do with Instagram. Facebook needs a strong launch for their next product. I can’t see a coffee-cup stain connecting with video features.
My best guest would be a Flipboard competitor - Facebook wants to get a coffee-cup’s worth of time each morning. Monthly Active Users is a tough metric to keep growing - the next most important measurement would be Time On Site. A Flipboard-style section, with top social articles, content from RSS feeds and stories from sites you’ve Liked could easily become a daily destination to catch up on the web. And, it’d be sure to push up Time On Site, and, in turn, possible revenue from advertisers.